2020-ban elérjük a Marsot - NASA

Astronauts could reach Mars in 2020s, panel says

From the Martian moon Phobos (pictured), astronauts could control rovers on the Red Planet's surface in real-time (Image: NASA)

• 00:32 09 September 2009 by David Shiga
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Humans could orbit Mars in the 2020s, says a panel appointed by the White House – but only if NASA's budget is boosted. At its current funding level, the agency will be unable to leave low-Earth orbit for at least the next two decades, according to a summary of the panel's report released on Tuesday.

Under President George W Bush, NASA was ordered to return astronauts to the moon by 2020. But in May, the Obama administration set up a panel of space experts to review the space agency's human spaceflight plans. The panel is led by former Lockheed Martin CEO Norman Augustine.

Though its final report is still being completed, on Tuesday the committee sent a summary of its findings to the White House and NASA. A final decision on NASA's future direction rests with the White House and Congress.

The summary contains a list of five possible ways forward for NASA's human spaceflight programme, without endorsing any particular one over the others.

One of those options, called the Flexible Path, would send astronauts to a series of increasingly distant destinations, starting with a mission to orbit the moon. A mission to an asteroid would follow later, and the plan would culminate in a mission to Mars, which the panel says could be achieved by the mid- to late-2020s.

To avoid breaking the bank, this option would delay development of any landing craft and other hardware needed to actually put astronauts on the planet's surface.

Instead, they would go into orbit around Mars, rendezvousing with one of its moons. The report does not explain whether the spacecraft would touch down on the Martian moon's surface or orbit around it.

No delay

The committee has discussed the Flexible Path idea previously in some of its public meetings, but its summary report is more specific about when the Mars mission would occur.

Such a mission would not see astronauts visit the Martian surface directly. But it would allow them to explore it using remotely controlled robots, which could potentially retrieve rock samples that could be brought back to Earth for more detailed study, according to one of the committee's presentations (Powerpoint file, 14 MB) at a public meeting in July.

Robots on the Martian surface like the Spirit and Opportunity rovers cannot be controlled in real-time from Earth. That is because there is a lag of up to 20 minutes each way due to the time it takes radio signals to travel between the two planets. When problems crop up, there is a long delay before humans can get new commands to the robots, slowing their progress.

"Humans or humans aided by robots can carry out scientific exploration of planetary surfaces, particularly complex ones, more effectively than robots alone," rover science chief Steven Squyres of Cornell University told the committee in August, citing the possibility of controlling rovers from a perch in orbit around the Red Planet.

Budget crunch

But the committee warned that without more money, NASA would be stuck in low-Earth orbit until at least the 2030s. "The Committee finds that no plan compatible with the Fiscal Year 2010 budget profile permits human exploration to continue in any meaningful way," the summary report says. Carrying out the Flexible Path programme or landing astronauts on the moon before the 2030s would require an extra $3 billion per year beyond the $18.7 billion planned for the agency, the report says.

Of the five major options listed in the report, two require no budget increase:

• Program of record: NASA would continue to build the Ares I and Ares V rockets and Orion crew capsule designed for human missions to the moon. But it would have no money for lunar landing equipment, and support for the space station would end after 2015.

• ISS + Lunar: This would extend the space station's life to 2020 and would use commercial vehicles for getting crews to low-Earth orbit instead of the Ares I rocket. NASA would build a lighter version of Ares V and would have no money for lunar landing gear.

The report outlines three additional options the agency could pursue if it were provided with an extra $3 billion per year:

• Moon first/Baseline: Space station support would end in 2015. NASA would continue with its plan to return astronauts to the moon, including building Ares V, Ares I and Orion. Human moon missions would happen in the mid- to late-2020s.

• Moon first variants: Space station support would be extended to 2020. Commercial vehicles would access low-Earth orbit. NASA would build a lighter version of Ares V or a vehicle derived from the space shuttle to support moon missions.

• Flexible path: Astronauts would orbit the moon and Mars and would visit one or more asteroids. These missions could use either a lighter version of Ares V, a vehicle based on the space shuttle, or modified versions of existing Atlas V or Delta IV commercial rockets. Space station support would be extended to 2020. Commercial vehicles would access low-Earth orbit.

The committee also recommended:

• Having space launch companies compete to provide launch services to NASA for crew launches to low-Earth orbit;

• Using NASA resources to extend the life of the International Space Station to at least 2020, in order to maximise the return on the tens of billions of dollars invested in constructing it;

• Exploring space beyond low-Earth orbit cooperatively with other countries, spreading the financial burden among more participants;

• Studying the possibility of extending operation of the space shuttle fleet to 2015 – it is currently scheduled to retire in 2010.